Key Insights:

• It was another bullish session for bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) on Saturday, with BTC visiting $21,000 for the first time since the FTX collapse.
• FTX updates and sentiment toward the Fed and US economic outlook delivered a breakout session.
• However, it was a bearish start to the Sunday session, with investors locking in profits after seven-day winning streaks.

Ethereum (ETH) rallied by 6.75% on Saturday. Following a 2.54% gain on Friday, ETH ended the day at $1,550. ETH wrapped up the day at $1,500 for the first time since November 7.

A bullish first hour saw ETH surge from a low of $1,449 to a high of $1,598 before hitting reverse. ETH broke through the Major Resistance Levels before returning to sub-$1,505. The pullback saw ETH fall through the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $1,570 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,505.

However, finding afternoon support, ETH broke back through R2 to end the day at $1,550.

On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) rallied by 5.20%. Following a 5.70% breakout on Friday, BTC ended the day at $20,966. Notably, BTC visited $10,000 for the first time since November 7 and extended its winning streak to seven sessions, its longest winning streak since March 2022.

A bullish first hour saw BTC surge from a low of $19,897 to a high of $21,378 before easing back. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,378 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $20,827. However, the pullback saw BTC briefly fall back through R2 and R1 before ending the day at $20,966.

Easing FTX Contagion Risk and Fed Policy Bets Delivered Support

Following the bullish Friday session, easing FTX contagion risk delivered a breakout start to the Saturday session. Reports of FTX holding $5 billion in cash & cash equivalents and nonstrategic assets with a value of $4.6 billion eased the threat of another FTX-linked crypto platform collapse.

While it may take time for FTX to make creditors whole, the latest numbers suggest that the losses from the collapse of FTX could be negligible.

Market sentiment toward Fed monetary policy and the US economic outlook was also bullish. Recent US economic indicators have fueled bets of a 25-basis point interest rate hike in February. A less aggressive Fed interest rate trajectory would ease the threat of a hard landing.

It was a bearish start to the Sunday session. Coming off the back of a seven-day winning streak, investors likely locked in profits before considering their next moves. Indicators and tailwinds support further price gains. The SEC v Ripple case and regulatory risk do remain headwinds, however.

A Ripple loss to the SEC and a shift in the regulatory landscape that stifles growth and innovation would be crypto-negative.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was down by 1.50% to $1,527. A bearish start to the day saw ETH fall from an early high of $1,553 to a low of $1,516.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to move through the $1,532 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,616. A move through the Saturday high of $1,598 would signal a bullish session, though the crypto news wires need to be crypto-friendly.

In the event of an extended rally, the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,681 and $1,700 will come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $1,830.

Failure to move through the pivot ($1,532) would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,467 in play. However, barring a risk-off-fueled sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,400 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,383. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,234.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. Ethereum sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,392. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above S1 ($1,467) and the 50-day EMA ($1,392) would support a breakout from R1 ($1,616) to target R2 ($1,681) and $1,700. However, a fall through S1 ($1,467) would give the bears a run at the 50-day EMA ($1,392). A fall through the 50-day EMA would signal a shift in sentiment.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 1.03% to $20,751. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $21,012 before falling to a low of $20,566.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid a fall through the $20,747 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $21,597. A move through the Saturday high of $21,378 would support another bullish session. However, the crypto news wires should be market-friendly to deliver another breakout.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $22,228 and resistance at $22,500. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $23,709.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $20,116 into play. Barring a crypto event-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$20,000 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $19,266. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $17,785.

An adverse crypto market event would bring sub-$16,500 into play.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $18,624. The 50-day EMA pulled away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the 50-day EMA ($18,624) would support a breakout from R1 ($21,597) to target R2 ($22,228). However, a fall through S1 ($20,116) would give the bears a run at the S2 ($19,266) and 50-day EMA ($18,624). A fall through the 50-day EMA would signal a shift in sentiment.