Inflation previously again down to 2% goal in accordance to “instantaneous inflation” calculation
“Instantaneous” inflation again down to target. https://t.co/ucSIcAgZP6 @jan_eeckhout pic.twitter.com/yXhMuAZkxs
— David Andolfatto (@dandolfa) January 23, 2023
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Comments (7)
This is, like, a new category of hopium
This is a good game. Let us leave reality behind and eat the desserts and cakes of our dreams.
The price remains high, it just stopped growing
So when will my rent or my grocery bill go down again?
The main measure of inflation, the CPI, is normally calculated as a 12-month average of monthly price/inflation data (an oversimplication, see linked paper for details). This is to smooth out variations and errors in data collection, mainly. As a result it is a trailing indicator of inflation.
[Instantaneous inflation](https://www.janeeckhout.com/wp-content/uploads/Instantaneous_Inflation.pdf) is instead a measure of spot inflation at the moment. It is more susceptible to distortion from variations and errors in data collection, but also provides a more immediate view of current levels of inflation.
Current data shows instantaneous inflation is already around the Fed’s target 2% level. Returning to this level of inflation is a necessary (but not sufficient) pre-condition for another Bitcoin bull run.
Huh?
My grocery bill disagrees.